How Copper Prices Could Be Impacting Commercial HVAC Theft Claims

Key Takeaways 

Property insurance professionals will learn: 

• The reasons behind record-high copper prices in early 2026—and their impact on commercial HVAC theft claims 
• Factors influencing how these losses can be accurately resolved 
• How expert assessments make HVAC theft claim decisions easier

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Copper is an essential material in HVAC systems, found in linesets, condenser coils, evaporator coils, heat pump components, and more. Due to copper’s scrap value, HVAC systems, especially at commercial properties, have long been targets for thieves. However, recent surges in copper prices may have exacerbated the problem.

The International Energy Agency reports that copper prices have already broken records in 2026, surpassing $14,500 per metric ton during intraday trading in January. Find out why this spike occurred and how commercial HVAC theft claims may have been impacted.

Rising copper prices have increased the metal’s value and appeal. Adjusters should understand how this trend could impact commercial HVAC losses.

What Caused Copper Prices To Surge?

The increase in copper prices was likely driven by a confluence of factors. According to Yahoo Finance, primary reasons for the shift include recent supply constraints in countries such as Chile and Indonesia, U.S. tariffs, and AI industry growth.

In August 2025, the U.S. implemented a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative imports. At the same time, the AI boom has significantly increased copper demand. Data centers, which are critical for AI operations, require vast amounts of copper. Forbes reports that while a typical data center uses between 5,000 and 15,000 tons of copper, hyperscale AI-focused data centers may need as much as 50,000 tons.

Copper Demand and Commercial HVAC Theft Claims

There have been reports of large-scale copper thefts amid rising costs. Although prices didn’t peak until early 2026, copper was already increasing in value by July 2025—reaching $5.60 per pound—when Facilities Dive reported a theft in Las Cruces, New Mexico, involving $1 million worth of HVAC equipment, presumably targeted for its valuable copper components. The same source reported that copper theft damaged a California Department of Motor Vehicles office’s HVAC system, forcing its temporary closure. In response to the growing issue, lawmakers in some parts of the country are proposing legislation to make it more difficult for thieves to sell stolen copper to scrap dealers.

Thieves removed the copper condenser coils from this commercial package unit.

HVACi’s 2025 assessment data, compiled in the HVACi 2025 Annual Claims Report, provides additional context for reported HVAC theft and vandalism claims. In both 2024 and 2025, this peril ranked as the second-most reported cause of loss for commercial HVAC systems.

However, reported perils are not always accurate. Objective expert evaluations and testing are essential to confirm the true cause of loss for accurate claims resolutions. In 2024, policyholders reported theft and vandalism as the cause of loss for 17% of commercial HVAC systems that HVACi assessed, but only 11% had verified damage from that peril. A similar gap appeared in 2025, when 19% of commercial claims cited theft and vandalism, yet assessments confirmed this kind of damage in only 12%.

This discrepancy between reported and confirmed causes highlights the importance of independent evaluation, even if trends suggest a certain cause of loss, such as copper theft, is on the rise. 

Verifying Scope of Damage and Repairability in HVAC Theft and Vandalism Claims

While copper prices may continue to fluctuate for various reasons, commercial HVAC theft and vandalism losses are likely to remain a key concern for insurance professionals. Partnering with objective experts can simplify investigations and improve the accuracy of claim resolutions. These experts not only confirm the cause of loss but also offer recommendations for restoring equipment to its pre-loss condition.

The impact of HVAC theft and vandalism can vary widely and is not always as extensive as shown here. This makes it essential to accurately assess the true scope of loss.

Although many systems impacted by theft or vandalism require replacement, HVACi’s 2025 assessments revealed that 32% of commercial systems with confirmed damage from this peril could be repaired. An unbiased third-party vendor should be able to determine whether a repair is appropriate based on key factors such as:

• Specific components stolen or impacted: The scope of damage from theft can affect repairability.
• Equipment age and replacement part availability: HVAC theft involving older systems can lead to extensive repairs or even full system replacement due to limited access to replacement parts.
• Compatibility: Some systems may be incompatible with available replacement components due to updated SEER (Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio) standards and different refrigerant types.

Each of these considerations makes it important for adjusters to seek expert HVAC evaluations to ensure they are ruling out repairability before settling for a full replacement, even if copper theft has occurred.

As part of Alpine Intel’s suite of services, HVACi equips adjusters with actionable HVAC system assessment reports. These reports include accurate, objective cause of loss and scope of damage determinations, repair and replacement recommendations, and settlement recommendations based on market value.

Submit an assignment for expert assistance with commercial or residential HVAC claims, whether related to theft or any other type of loss.

Alpine Intel’s content is meant to inform and educate readers using general terms and descriptions. They do not replace expert evaluations that determine facts and details related to each unique claim.